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Escaping the enlightenment’s damaging legacy: Scenario planning as if-then conditional prospection

Derbyshire, James
Advisors
Editors
Crawford, Megan M.
Wright, George
Other Contributors
Affiliation
University of Chester
EPub Date
Publication Date
2025-02-13
Submitted Date
Collections
Chester Business School
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Book Chapter - AAM
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Abstract
The chapter sets out a new theory, underpinning philosophy, and practical approach to decision-making under uncertainty through use of the tool scenario planning. The new approach is based on an alternative to the presently mainstream understanding of rational decision-making based on Rational Choice Theory. The outlined alternative is a combination of frame-sensitive reasoning and if-then conditional prospection. The implications for scenario planning of this alternative understanding of rationality are explored in detail.
Citation
Derbyshire, J. (2025). Escaping the enlightenment’s damaging legacy: Scenario planning as if-then conditional prospection. In M. M. M. Crawford & G. Wright (Eds.), Improving and Enhancing Scenario Planning: Futures Thinking (pp. 54-72). Edward Elgar.
Publisher
Edward Elgar Publishing
Journal
Research Unit
URI
http://hdl.handle.net/10034/628607
DOI
PubMed ID
PubMed Central ID
Type
Book chapter
Language
Description
This is a draft chapter. The final version is available in [Improving and Enhancing Scenario Planning: Futures Thinking] edited by [Megan M. Crawford & George Wright], published in 2025, Edward Elgar Publishing Ltd. The material cannot be used for any other purpose without further permission of the publisher, and is for private use only.
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EISSN
ISBN
9781035310579
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https://www.e-elgar.com/shop/gbp/improving-and-enhancing-scenario-planning-9781035310579.html